The 29th Day

Many of you have heard this story but it bears repeating. There is a pond that has one Lily pad growing. This Lily pad will split into two on the second day then split again into four on the third day and so on. This keeps happening until on the 30th day they have completely covered the pond and the oxygen is depleted, killing everything in the pond. Ok, here's the question: when was the pond only half covered? It seems logical to say the 15th day but actually it would be on the 29th day. One day the pond is only half covered and the next...death. Wouldn't give you much time to take action, would it?

We don't know how far along we are towards a tipping point where it will be very hard to reverse the effects of CO2 and other harmful gasses in the atmosphere. Or how much time we have to reverse the rapid melting of the polar ice packs or glaciers that feed fresh water to millions of people in China or India or Colorado Springs. Or when the population of the earth will be too great to adequately feed everyone. We might be getting close to the 29th day.

Lost amid all the arguments about global warming, oil shale deposits or middle east military intervention is the fact that we just don't know how close we are to becoming another civilization, like the Olmec or the Anasazi, who depleted their resources before they could adapt to changes in their environment. If we are wrong and have plenty of time why not start now and save our children and grandchildren the burden of dealing with these issues. If we are closer than we'd like to admit then we have to start now before it's too late. Either way starting now is the only sensible thing to do.